Weatherperson’s Day

What the day is

Weatherperson's Day is observed on February 5, honoring meteorologists, forecasters and broadcasters. The date is the birthday of John Jeffries, born in Boston in 1744, a physician who kept systematic daily weather records from the 1770s and made one of the earliest scientific balloon ascents to take measurements of the upper air.

Origin and background

Forecasting has improved more than almost any other everyday prediction, and almost nobody notices. A five-day forecast today is about as reliable as a one-day forecast was in the 1980s, and useful skill now extends well beyond a week. Hurricane track prediction has improved to the point that evacuation decisions are made days earlier than was once possible, which saves lives directly.

Two things drove it. Satellites and automated sensors supply an enormous volume of observations, and numerical models running on very large computers solve the physics of the atmosphere forward in time. Because small errors in the starting conditions grow, forecasters now run many slightly different simulations at once and look at the spread, which is where probability forecasts come from. A thirty percent chance of rain is a real statement about the distribution of outcomes, not hedging.

That is also the source of the profession's reputation problem. People remember the forecast that was wrong and not the hundreds that were right, and probabilistic statements get heard as excuses. Broadcast meteorologists also absorb genuine hostility, including abuse during severe weather events and, increasingly, for mentioning climate at all.

The role is often misunderstood in another way: a station meteorologist is frequently the only scientist on local television, and in a severe weather emergency they are performing a public safety function live.

How to take part

• Thank your local forecaster, who probably hears mostly complaints.
• Learn what a percentage chance of rain actually means.
• Check a forecast five days out, then check it against what happens.
• Become a volunteer observer. Several national networks depend on them.
• Follow official sources rather than dramatic ones during severe weather.